The Armchair Guide to the Race of the Week
The King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes – Group 1
Saturday, July 24^th. at Ascot – Race 5 – Post Time 4.25 p.m. GMT
Three-year-Olds and Upward – 1 ½ miles on the turf – Purse ₤435,000 to the winner

Morning Line: 6/5 Doyen, 3/1 Valle Enchantee, 4/1 Warrsan, 6/1 Bandari and Sulamani, 10/1 Phoenix Reach, 12/1 Gamut and High Accolade, 16/1 Tycoon, 25/1 Hard Buck, 50/1 Lunar Sovereign

Briefly:

1. Bandari…..tough competitor beat Sulamani by ½ a length, last time out at Newmarket. But here he’s 5lbs worse off and that, coupled with the fact that he has disappointed twice at this track, may mean that a minor share is all he can hope for.

2. Doyen….very promising, lightly-raced colt won very impressively here at Ascot in June and will take all the beating.

3. Gamut….consistent performer, who represents a powerful stable/jockey combo, may not be quite up to this assignment.

4. Hard Buck…ex-Brazilian (now US-based) colt ran well in his native land, against the likes of the very useful Pico Central (a Grade 1 winner on the dirt in the States) but his turf form in the US has been so-so, and he may find these a little too tough.

5. High Accolade….another Group 2/3 contender, who is a 2-time Ascot winner, may find this class beyond him.

6. Lunar Sovereign….won a Grade 1 at Belmont last fall, but his form has tailed off badly since then and he’s in here as a pacemaker for Doyen and Sulamani (if the latter runs).

7. Phoenix Reach…won a weak Canadian International last fall, and has looked dull in two efforts so far this year. So, with his history of injuries and liking for softer ground, these conditions are unlikely to suit.

8. Sulamani…classy 5-y-old finished 2^nd. in The Arc in ’02 and in this race last year. However he may not be quite the horse he once was, and will probably only run here if there is rain to soften the going. If that happens, though, and he runs….he should not be discounted!

9. Warrsan…a typical Clive Brittain globe-trotting veteran, he ran a big race to be 2^nd. in the Eclipse Stakes, last time out at Sandown, and (going for points in the mid-Summer series) he’ll probably hit the board again here.

10. Vallee Enchatee…French 4-y-old filly won a Group 1 in Hong Kong last December, but has been unlucky so far this season. Here French ace Peslier takes over from the fired Dominique Boeuf, and, if she doesn’t mind the ‘firmish’ ground, she figures to run a big race.

11. Tycoon….ran a huge race (on the lead at 150/1) to be only beaten 2 lengths into 3^rd. on his ’04 debut, in the Irish Derby behind Grey Swallow and North Light. But was that too hard a race, first time out? And will he bounce here? Because this certainly is a tough spot to run him back.

Summary: With FIRM-ish ground forecast, Sulamani probably will not run. So Doyen will be a pretty short order to step up to the big-time here. As always, pace will count for a lot, and it will be interesting to see if Jamie Spencer tries to take advantage of the big weight allowance (on the 3-y-old) and make the running on Tycoon. As the first half mile is gently downhill towards Swinley Bottom the pace in these types of races at Ascot is invariably quick, before the stiff mile climb home.

So, as the pace then quickens, around the ½ mile pole, just before the field enters the stretch , we expect the field to be tightly bunched. Thereafter it will be a matter of who gets the clearest run to the wire. In a tight one we fancy the filly to nail Doyen, with Warrsan third.

Selection: VALLEE ENCHANTEE to beat Doyen, with Warrsan the Tri-horse.